Goldman Sachs expects UK unemployment to hold at 4.3% in October By Investing.com

Today, Goldman Sachs provided a preview of upcoming UK labor market data for October and inflation figures for November.

The financial institution predicts that the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4.3%. In terms of wages, private sector regular wages are expected to decline after a strong September, under the influence of compositional effects.

However, due to a good base effect, the year-on-year rate for the three-month period is forecast to rise by 0.2 percentage points to 5.0%.

Overall wage growth in the economy could lead to an increase compared to the 5.5% pay rise for National Health Service (NHS) workers. Looking ahead to November inflation numbers, Goldman Sachs forecasts a slight decline in services inflation to 4.98%, 7 basis points above the Bank of England’s (BoE) projection.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, is expected to rise 14 basis points to 3.45%, boosted by a rise in the annual rate of core inflation.

Goldman Sachs also expects headline inflation to increase by 26 basis points, reaching 2.54% — 12 basis points higher than the BoE’s forecast.

This expected rise in inflation is partly attributed to rising fuel prices and the increase in tobacco duties announced in the Autumn Budget.

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